SimpleFunctions

Olympia Snowe · KXENDORSECOLLINS-26NOV03

Olympia Snowe is priced at 18¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside KXENDORSECOLLINS-26NOV03.

Price history

18¢ current

31¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Jun 16, 2026Jul 10, 2026

Contract brief

If Olympia Snowe publicly endorses Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine Senate election before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Olympia Snowe

Rank

#1 of 6

Leader

Olympia Snowe 19¢

Range

3¢-19¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXENDORSECOLLINS-26NOV03-OSNO

Jul 13, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 14m ago

Implied probability

18¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 13, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 14m ago

Bid

19¢

Ask

25¢

Spread

Reported volume

$893

Family rank

#1 of 6

6 outcomes · KXENDORSECOLLINS-26NOV03

Closes

Nov 3, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

19 / 25¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
19¢5
18¢100
16¢200
4¢40
3¢122
AskSize
25¢100
26¢200
94¢28
98¢49
99¢50

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Olympia Snowe publicly endorses Susan Collins in the 2026 Maine Senate election before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 3, 2026

Identifier

KXENDORSECOLLINS-26NOV03-OSNO

SF Signal
SF Index
688.30
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1376.6%

IY (No)

75.7%

Adj IY

688%

CRI

4

Overround

-0.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1376.6%
75.7%
Adj IY
688%
4
Overround
-0.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.