SimpleFunctions

Oregon · KXNCAAF-27

Oregon is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside KXNCAAF-27.

Price history

10¢ current

5¢10¢15¢
May 22, 2026Jun 21, 2026

Contract brief

If Oregon wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Oregon

Rank

#3 of 16

Leader

Texas 11¢

Range

1¢-11¢

Family volume

$71K

Identifier

KXNCAAF-27-ORE

Jun 21, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 11m ago

Implied probability

10¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 21, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 11m ago

Bid

Ask

10¢

Spread

24h volume

$5K

Family rank

#3 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNCAAF-27

Closes

Feb 23, 2027

Family volume

$71K

Orderbook snapshot

9 / 10¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
9¢905
8¢16K
7¢1.3K
6¢503
5¢1.0K
AskSize
10¢24K
11¢40K
12¢54K
14¢113
16¢3

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Oregon wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 23, 2027

Identifier

KXNCAAF-27-ORE

SF Signal
SF Index
664.32
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1494.7%

IY (No)

14.6%

Adj IY

664%

CRI

10

Overround

-0.3%

LAS

0.11

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

1494.7%
14.6%
Adj IY
664%
10
Overround
-0.3%
LAS
0.11

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.