Patrick Roath · KXMAPRIMARY-08D26
Patrick Roath is priced at 43¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 41¢ bid, 44¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside KXMAPRIMARY-08D26.
Price history
43¢ current
Contract brief
If Patrick Roath wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MA-08 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Patrick Roath
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Stephen Lynch 57¢
Range
41¢-57¢
Family volume
$386
Identifier
KXMAPRIMARY-08D26-PROA
Jun 26, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
41¢
Ask
44¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$231
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · KXMAPRIMARY-08D26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$386
Orderbook snapshot
41 / 44¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Patrick Roath wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MA-08 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMAPRIMARY-08D26-PROA
Event family
KXMAPRIMARY-08D26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$386
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Stephen Lynch 57¢
Current share
60%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.