Will Chris Boyd be the Democratic nominee for MA-04

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability indicates that markets estimate a 37% chance Chris Boyd wins the Democratic primary for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district. The moderate probability suggests meaningful competition but Boyd as a plausible frontrunner. Primary dynamics in this district would be shaped by candidate name recognition, fundraising capacity, endorsements from local Democratic officials, and voter preferences across the district's demographic composition. The Democratic nominee will be determined by the primary election, which typically occurs in Massachusetts during the fall of election years. Comparably, other Massachusetts Democratic nominations show varying confidence levels—Lori Trahan leads MA-03 at 89%, while less-established candidates in other districts trade at single-digit percentages. Market pricing reflects uncertainty about candidate field strength, potential late entrants, and whether Boyd maintains momentum through primary season.

• ›Chris Boyd's current funding and fundraising trajectory relative to other potential MA-04 Democratic candidates
• ›Endorsements and support from established Massachusetts Democratic figures, particularly those representing or influential in the 4th district
• ›Whether competing primary candidates enter or exit the race before the filing deadline
• ›Voter polling or primary election results in neighboring Massachusetts districts (MA-03 and MA-08 showing high incumbent confidence at 89% and 88%)
• ›The timing and any declared intentions from incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss regarding re-election or seeking higher office

What moved the line

• Aug 23Patrick Roath↓10pp48→38¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 17Richard Neal↓10pp83→73¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 17Jeromie Whalen↑9pp13→22¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 18Jeromie Whalen↓7pp22→15¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19Richard Neal↑7pp77→84¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds