Will Chris Boyd be the Democratic nominee for MA-04
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 56% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
56%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$389
10 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08
Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?: Patrick Roath
KXMAPRIMARY-08D26-PROA
Cluster 2
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?: Stephen Lynch
KXMAPRIMARY-08D26-SLYN
Cluster 3
Will Jeromie Whalen be the Democratic nominee for MA-01
Will Jeromie Whalen be the Democratic nominee for MA-01?: Jeromie Whalen
KXMAPRIMARY-01D26-JWHA
Cluster 4
Will Jason Poulos be the Democratic nominee for MA-04
Will Jason Poulos be the Democratic nominee for MA-04?: Jason Poulos
KXMAPRIMARY-04D26-JPOU
Cluster 5
Will Richard Neal be the Democratic nominee for MA-01
Will Richard Neal be the Democratic nominee for MA-01?: Richard Neal
KXMAPRIMARY-01D26-RNEA
Cluster 6
Will Lori Trahan be the Democratic nominee for MA-03
Will Lori Trahan be the Democratic nominee for MA-03?: Lori Trahan
KXMAPRIMARY-03D26-LTRA
Cluster 7
Will Jake Auchincloss be the Democratic nominee for MA-04
Will Jake Auchincloss be the Democratic nominee for MA-04?: Jake Auchincloss
KXMAPRIMARY-04D26-JAUC
Cluster 8
Will John Field be the Republican nominee for MA-06
Will John Field be the Republican nominee for MA-06?: John Field
KXMAPRIMARY-06R26-JFIE
Cluster 9
Will Micah Jones be the Republican nominee for MA-06
Will Micah Jones be the Republican nominee for MA-06?: Micah Jones
KXMAPRIMARY-06R26-MJON
Cluster 10
Will Bill Keating be the Democratic nominee for MA-09
Will Bill Keating be the Democratic nominee for MA-09?: Bill Keating
KXMAPRIMARY-09D26-BKEA
Analysis
This probability indicates that markets estimate a 37% chance Chris Boyd wins the Democratic primary for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district. The moderate probability suggests meaningful competition but Boyd as a plausible frontrunner. Primary dynamics in this district would be shaped by candidate name recognition, fundraising capacity, endorsements from local Democratic officials, and voter preferences across the district's demographic composition. The Democratic nominee will be determined by the primary election, which typically occurs in Massachusetts during the fall of election years. Comparably, other Massachusetts Democratic nominations show varying confidence levels—Lori Trahan leads MA-03 at 89%, while less-established candidates in other districts trade at single-digit percentages. Market pricing reflects uncertainty about candidate field strength, potential late entrants, and whether Boyd maintains momentum through primary season.
- ›Chris Boyd's current funding and fundraising trajectory relative to other potential MA-04 Democratic candidates
- ›Endorsements and support from established Massachusetts Democratic figures, particularly those representing or influential in the 4th district
- ›Whether competing primary candidates enter or exit the race before the filing deadline
- ›Voter polling or primary election results in neighboring Massachusetts districts (MA-03 and MA-08 showing high incumbent confidence at 89% and 88%)
- ›The timing and any declared intentions from incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss regarding re-election or seeking higher office
What moved the line
- Jun 24Stephen Lynch↑4pp52→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Stephen Lynch↑3pp56→59¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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