Joe Mitchell · KXHOUSERACE-IA02-26
Joe Mitchell is priced at 51¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 51¢ bid, 52¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXHOUSERACE-IA02-26.
Price history
51¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the House member sworn in for IA-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Joe Mitchell
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Joe Mitchell 51¢
Range
50¢-51¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXHOUSERACE-IA02-26-R
Sep 20, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
51¢
Ask
52¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$756
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXHOUSERACE-IA02-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
51 / 52¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the House member sworn in for IA-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXHOUSERACE-IA02-26-R
Event family
KXHOUSERACE-IA02-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Joe Mitchell 51¢
Current share
90%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.