Republican party · SENATEMI-26
Republican party is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 29¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside SENATEMI-26.
Price history
34¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Michigan for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Republican party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Democratic party 68¢
Range
29¢-68¢
Family volume
$660
Identifier
SENATEMI-26-R
Jun 9, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
29¢
Ask
33¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$208
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · SENATEMI-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$660
Orderbook snapshot
29 / 33¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Michigan for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
SENATEMI-26-R
Event family
SENATEMI-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$660
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Democratic party 68¢
Current share
32%
Democratic party
kalshi · SENATEMI-26-D
Republican party
kalshi · SENATEMI-26-R
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.