Ken Paxton · SENATETX-26
Ken Paxton is priced at 58¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 58¢ bid, 59¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside SENATETX-26.
Price history
58¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ken Paxton
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Ken Paxton 58¢
Range
42¢-58¢
Family volume
$19K
Identifier
SENATETX-26-R
Jun 14, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
58¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$7K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · SENATETX-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$19K
Orderbook snapshot
58 / 59¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
SENATETX-26-R
Event family
SENATETX-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$19K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Ken Paxton 58¢
Current share
40%
Ken Paxton
kalshi · SENATETX-26-R
James Talarico
kalshi · SENATETX-26-D
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.442
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.