Will Texas be the school with the most players drafted in rounds 1, 2, and 3
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$51K
19 contracts
Top contract
57¢
$13K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Will Texas win the College”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 15% and 20%?: Ken Paxton, 15-20%
KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P17
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?: Ken Paxton, 5-10%
KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P7
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?: Ken Paxton, 20%+
KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P60
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 10% and 15%?: Ken Paxton, 10-15%
KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P12
Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 0% and 5%?: Ken Paxton, 0-5%
KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P2
Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?: John Cornyn, 5-10%
KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-JCOR-P7
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points?: Democrats, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXGOVD-P3
Cluster 2
Will Texas win the College
Cluster 3
Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn
Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026?: Donald Trump → John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton
KXTXRUNOFFENDORSE-26MAY26-DJT-BOTH
Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026?: Donald Trump → John Cornyn
KXTXRUNOFFENDORSE-26MAY26-DJT-JCOR
Cluster 4
Will Ken Paxton be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Texas
Will Ken Paxton be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Texas?: Ken Paxton
KXSENATETXR-26-KP
Cluster 5
Will Texas A&M win the College Baseball World Series
Will Texas A&M win the College Baseball World Series?: Texas A&M
KXNCAABASEBALL-26-TXAM
Cluster 6
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?: James Talarico
SENATETX-26-D
Cluster 7
Will John Cornyn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Texas
Will John Cornyn be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Texas?: John Cornyn
KXSENATETXR-26-JC
Cluster 8
Will a protest within the United States that draws a combined estimated attendance of at least 250,000 people across all locations be confirmed
Cluster 9
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?: Republican party
SENATETX-26-R
Cluster 10
Will Texas be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Texas
Will Texas be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Texas
KXMLBALWEST-26-TEX
Cluster 11
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026
What moved the line
- Apr 29Donald Trump → John Cornyn↓9pp33→24¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Ken Paxton, 0-5%↓8pp31→23¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Ken Paxton, 15-20%↑7pp6→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 2May 2026↑6pp13→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Ken Paxton, 0-5%↑6pp23→29¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.