Will Texas be the school with the most players drafted in rounds 1, 2, and 3
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$96K
6 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
451 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?: Ken Paxton
SENATETX-26-R
Cluster 2
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?: James Talarico
SENATETX-26-D
Cluster 3
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Texas
KXNCAAF-27-TEX
Cluster 4
Will Texas be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Texas
Will Texas be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Texas
KXMLBALWEST-26-TEX
Cluster 5
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026
Cluster 6
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points
Analysis
This contract asks whether the University of Texas will have more players selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft than any other school. At 23%, this reflects a moderate but below-even probability, suggesting analysts expect other programs to more likely lead in early-round draft production. Texas football has generated significant talent in recent years, but the outcome depends on how many current Longhorns enter the draft, their evaluated positions, and how many competitors' players also enter. The NFL Draft typically occurs in late April each year, serving as the resolution point. Factors that could shift this probability include unexpected early declarations for the draft from Texas players, injuries affecting draft stock, or changes in other schools' draft participation rates as early entries are announced in the months leading up to the event.
- ›The total number of Texas players declaring for the 2026 draft in early rounds versus historical averages for the program
- ›Comparative draft productivity of other major programs (Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Ohio State, etc.) in the same draft class
- ›Whether key Texas prospects declare early or return to school, affecting the school's representation in rounds 1-3
- ›Average draft position and round estimates for Texas prospects as pre-draft evaluations are published
- ›Historical patterns showing Texas's typical draft representation relative to other Power Conference schools
What moved the line
- Aug 3Texas↓8pp29→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Texas↓7pp21→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Texas↑6pp16→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9Texas↑4pp27→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Texas↑3pp24→27¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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- Will the number of Cabinet nominees confirmed by the Senate be exactly 3 after Issuance and before the 2026 August recesslast 7% · 0d
- Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug 9, 2026last 94% · 0d
- Will Ralph Norman announce a run for the Class 2 United States Senate seat from South Carolina in 2026last 4% · 1d
- Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Jul 19, 2026last 46% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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