Will Texas be the school with the most players drafted in rounds 1, 2, and 3
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$162K
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
405 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?: James Talarico
SENATETX-26-D
Cluster 2
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?: Ken Paxton
SENATETX-26-R
Cluster 3
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship
Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship?: Texas
KXNCAAF-27-TEX
Cluster 4
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026
Cluster 5
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points
Analysis
This market estimates a 38% chance that the University of Texas will have more players selected in the first three rounds of the next NFL Draft than any other college program. The probability reflects Texas's recent recruiting success and on-field performance, particularly following a College Football Playoff National Championship run. Key factors include the team's roster depth at premium draft positions, injury status of key players, and how other traditional powerhouses like Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State perform in the upcoming season. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the actual NFL Draft itself, where team selection patterns and player performance will determine the final count. Texas's draft position will depend heavily on which players declare for the draft versus returning for another college season, a decision typically announced in January following the conclusion of bowl games.
- ›Texas roster composition in premium positions (QB, WR, pass rush) relative to competing schools
- ›Injury status of top Texas prospects heading into draft evaluation period
- ›Portal additions and departures affecting Texas player count versus competitor schools
- ›Performance of competing programs (Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State) in securing draft-eligible talent
- ›Early NFL evaluation projections published by major scouting outlets through January draft declaration deadline
What moved the line
- Sep 182↑8pp55→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18James Talarico↑4pp53→57¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Hinojosa, 3+ pts↑4pp5→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Ken Paxton↓3pp46→43¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will any NVIDIA representative say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026last 95% · 1d
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 6d
- Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026last 83% · 7d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 11d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 11d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.