SimpleFunctions
6 source contracts·Kalshi 6·refreshed just now·Closes Nov 3, 2027 · 481d

Will Texas be the school with the most players drafted in rounds 1, 2, and 3

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 6 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

33%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

33%

6 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$22K

6 contracts

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

481 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 20% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 20% on 2026-07-10
Aggregate of 6 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

6 clusters across 6 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas

1 contract$14K

Cluster 2

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas

1 contract$6K

Cluster 3

Will Texas win the College Football Playoff National Championship

1 contract$2K

Cluster 4

Will Texas be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Texas

1 contract$164

Cluster 5

Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026

1 contract$2

Cluster 6

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points

1 contract$0

Analysis

This contract asks whether the University of Texas will have more players selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft than any other school. At 23%, this reflects a moderate but below-even probability, suggesting analysts expect other programs to more likely lead in early-round draft production. Texas football has generated significant talent in recent years, but the outcome depends on how many current Longhorns enter the draft, their evaluated positions, and how many competitors' players also enter. The NFL Draft typically occurs in late April each year, serving as the resolution point. Factors that could shift this probability include unexpected early declarations for the draft from Texas players, injuries affecting draft stock, or changes in other schools' draft participation rates as early entries are announced in the months leading up to the event.

  • The total number of Texas players declaring for the 2026 draft in early rounds versus historical averages for the program
  • Comparative draft productivity of other major programs (Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Ohio State, etc.) in the same draft class
  • Whether key Texas prospects declare early or return to school, affecting the school's representation in rounds 1-3
  • Average draft position and round estimates for Texas prospects as pre-draft evaluations are published
  • Historical patterns showing Texas's typical draft representation relative to other Power Conference schools

What moved the line

  • Jul 3Texas3pp2225¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 4Texas3pp2522¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.