Richard Neal · KXMAPRIMARY-01D26
Richard Neal is priced at 83¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 82¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside KXMAPRIMARY-01D26.
Price history
83¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If Richard Neal wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MA-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Richard Neal
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Richard Neal 82¢
Range
1¢-82¢
Family volume
$3
Identifier
KXMAPRIMARY-01D26-RNEA
Jun 26, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
82¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$13K
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · KXMAPRIMARY-01D26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$3
Orderbook snapshot
82 / 88¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Richard Neal wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MA-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMAPRIMARY-01D26-RNEA
Event family
KXMAPRIMARY-01D26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Richard Neal 82¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
Read 83% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.