Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-1?
Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-1?. This contract trades at 61¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,539 open interest, suggesting minimal trader activity and potentially stale pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,539 open interest, suggesting minimal trader activity and potentially stale pricing. The 61¢ price implies a modest favorite status for Shaheen, but the asymmetric yields—137.3% for Yes versus 241.3% for No—indicate the market is pricing in significant uncertainty about the Democratic primary outcome. With over 200 days until expiration and a narrow 3¢ spread, this appears to be a low-conviction market awaiting more information about the 2026 New Hampshire primary field.
Resolution rules
If Stefany Shaheen wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NH-1 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNH1D-26-SSHA yes 100