Will Tesla Inc report above 15000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Tesla Inc report above 15000 Semi Trucks Produced before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (4%) for Tesla to produce over 15,000 Semi trucks cumulatively before January 2027, despite offering a staggering 4546% implied yield on Yes contracts.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (4%) for Tesla to produce over 15,000 Semi trucks cumulatively before January 2027, despite offering a staggering 4546% implied yield on Yes contracts. The zero 24-hour volume combined with just $437 open interest and a flat 7-day price history (holding at 3¢) suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, as such extreme yield disparities typically attract arbitrage activity in functioning markets. With 260 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal market depth rather than an efficiently priced contract.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc reports above 15000 Semi Trucks Produced in Any Quarter before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXTESLASEMI-27JAN-15000 yes 100