7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027
Above 40 is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 38¢ bid, 45¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.
Price history
37¢ current
Contract brief
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 40
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
Above 40 38¢
Range
2¢-38¢
Family volume
$648
Identifier
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40
Aug 22, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
38¢
Ask
45¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$60
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above
Closes
Jan 5, 2027
Family volume
$648
Orderbook snapshot
38 / 45¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 5, 2027
Identifier
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40
Event family
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$648
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Above 40 38¢
Current share
9%
Above 40
kalshi · KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40
Above 50
kalshi · KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A50
Above 60
kalshi · KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A60
Above 70
kalshi · KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A70
Above 80
kalshi · KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A80
Above 90
kalshi · KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A90
Above 100
kalshi · KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A100
Above 110
kalshi · KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A110
Above 120
kalshi · KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A120
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.