Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 20% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 30
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Above 40
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 5, 2027
85 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 60
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A60
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 90 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 90
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A90
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 80
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A80
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 70
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A70
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 50
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A50
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 40
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 30 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?: Above 30
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A30
Analysis
This market estimates a 68% probability that the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz will exceed 40 between July 2025 and January 2027. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil and shipping traffic; transit volumes serve as a barometer for regional stability and petroleum market conditions. The current probability reflects expectations that shipping activity will remain near or above historical averages during the period, despite geopolitical risks and sanctions dynamics in the Middle East. Market pricing shows declining probability at higher thresholds (53% above 50 calls, 35% above 90 calls), suggesting traders expect moderate traffic rather than surge conditions. Resolution hinges on actual IMF PortWatch data releases during the evaluation window, with key drivers including escalation or de-escalation of regional tensions, global energy demand, and alternative routing decisions by shipping operators.
- ›IMF PortWatch historical baseline: establish whether 40 transits per 7-day period represents above-average, typical, or below-average traffic to contextualize the 68% probability
- ›Geopolitical risk events: any new sanctions, military incidents, or shipping attacks in the region between now and January 2027 that could force route changes or temporarily reduce traffic
- ›Global oil demand trends: changes in crude consumption and refining activity drive volume through the Strait; economic recession or demand destruction would pressure the metric downward
- ›Alternative routing adoption: degree to which operators use Suez Canal alternatives or bypass routes affects whether Hormuz volumes maintain or contract below 40
- ›Data quality and measurement: confirm that IMF PortWatch methodology remains consistent throughout the evaluation period and that data availability does not create gaps in the 7-day moving average calculation
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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