SimpleFunctions

B200 compute per hour price above $12.17 on Dec 31

Above $12.17 is priced at 19¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $.

Price history

19¢ current

+4¢
0¢10¢20¢
Aug 11, 2026Aug 21, 2026

Contract brief

If the value of B200 compute per hour is above $12.17 by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above $12.17

Rank

#9 of 16

Leader

Above $7.37 70¢

Range

2¢-70¢

Family volume

$31

Identifier

KXB200MAX-26DEC31-12.170

Aug 21, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 3m ago

Implied probability

19¢
Bid/ask midpoint
Aug 21, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 3m ago

Bid

15¢

Ask

22¢

Spread

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#9 of 16

16 outcomes · Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$31

Orderbook snapshot

15 / 22¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.2K
15¢5
14¢50
2¢700
AskSize
22¢50
33¢700
92¢13
93¢35
94¢46

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the value of B200 compute per hour is above $12.17 by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXB200MAX-26DEC31-12.170

SF Signal
SF Index
844.14
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1688.3%

IY (No)

44.7%

Adj IY

844%

CRI

6

Overround

5.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1688.3%
44.7%
Adj IY
844%
6
Overround
5.3%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogtech

Prediction Markets Are Building a Yield Curve for AI Compute

B200 GPU rental markets now price AI compute as a tradable curve across Kalshi, Polymarket, Ornn, and cloud spot prices.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident

A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.