Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.57 on Dec 31
Leader sits at 90% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $2.27
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
Above $3.17
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$674
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
217 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $6.77 by Dec 31?: Above $6.77
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-6.770
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $6.47 by Dec 31?: Above $6.47
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-6.470
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.27 by Dec 31?: Above $5.27
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-5.270
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.97 on Dec 31?: Above $4.97
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-4.970
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.67 on Dec 31?: Above $4.67
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-4.670
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $6.17 by Dec 31?: Above $6.17
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-6.170
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.37 by Dec 31?: Above $4.37
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-4.370
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.77 on Dec 31?: Above $3.77
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-3.770
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $4.07 on Dec 31?: Above $4.07
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-4.070
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.37 by Dec 31?: Above $7.37
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-7.370
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.07 by Dec 31?: Above $7.07
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-7.070
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $2.57 by Dec 31?: Above $2.57
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-2.570
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.17 by Dec 31?: Above $3.17
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-3.170
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.67 by Dec 31?: Above $7.67
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-7.670
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $2.87 by Dec 31?: Above $2.87
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-2.870
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.97 by Dec 31?: Above $7.97
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-7.970
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.87 by Dec 31?: Above $5.87
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-5.870
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.57 on Dec 31?: Above $5.57
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-5.570
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.47 by Dec 31?: Above $3.47
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-3.470
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $2.27 by Dec 31?: Above $2.27
KXB200MAX-26DEC31-2.270
Analysis
This market assesses the likelihood that Nvidia's B200 GPU will cost above $5.57 per compute hour by year-end 2026. The 90% probability reflects strong trader confidence in price exceeding the $2.27 threshold, with progressively lower odds at higher price tiers ($5.27 at 69%, $6.47 at 42%). Current pricing dynamics depend on GPU supply levels, datacenter demand, and competitive offerings from AMD and other manufacturers. The main resolution driver will be actual B200 pricing announced or published by December 31, 2026. Traders pricing this high suggest they expect either sustained GPU scarcity, strong enterprise demand, or limited competitive pricing pressure through year-end. The gap between the 90% floor price and 42% for the $6.47 threshold indicates uncertainty about whether prices will sustain at premium levels or normalize as supply increases.
- ›Current B200 market pricing and availability as of mid-2026 will constrain upward movement; prices unlikely to exceed $5.57 if supply normalizes significantly
- ›Datacenter AI infrastructure spending growth through Q4 2026 directly influences demand elasticity and willingness to pay for premium compute capacity
- ›Competitive pricing from AMD's MI-series GPUs and other accelerators will create downward pressure if they achieve meaningful market share gains
- ›The specific metric definition for 'compute per hour price' must match how Nvidia or third-party pricing databases actually report B200 costs by December 31
- ›Supply chain capacity and manufacturing yields for B200 production determine whether sufficient inventory exists to satisfy demand at current pricing levels
What moved the line
- May 28Above $4.97↑32pp38→70¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $5.57↑30pp37→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $4.07↑25pp54→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $3.47↑24pp64→88¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $3.17↑22pp67→89¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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