Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting
Hike more than 25bps is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside Will the Bank of Japan.
Price history
2¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Hike more than 25bps
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
Maintain current rate 87¢
Range
1¢-87¢
Family volume
$884
Identifier
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-H25P
Jun 23, 2026, 9:20 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$31
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the Bank of Japan
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$884
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at July 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-H25P
Event family
Will the Bank of Japan.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$884
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Maintain current rate 87¢
Current share
3%
Maintain current rate
kalshi · KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-HOLD
Hike 25bps
kalshi · KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-H25
Hike more than 25bps
kalshi · KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-H25P
Cut more than 25bps
kalshi · KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-C25P
Cut 25bps
kalshi · KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-C25
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.425
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.