The Black Ball · KXOSCARSCORE-27
The Black Ball is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside KXOSCARSCORE-27.
Price history
8¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If The Black Ball has won Best Music (Original Score) at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
The Black Ball
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
The Odyssey 48¢
Range
4¢-48¢
Family volume
$726
Identifier
KXOSCARSCORE-27-BLA
Aug 8, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$200
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · KXOSCARSCORE-27
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$726
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If The Black Ball has won Best Music (Original Score) at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
KXOSCARSCORE-27-BLA
Event family
KXOSCARSCORE-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$726
Outcomes
5
Highest price
The Odyssey 48¢
Current share
28%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.