Will The Odyssey win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
483 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will The Black Ball win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars
Will The Black Ball win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?: The Black Ball
KXOSCARSCORE-27-BLA
Cluster 2
Will Disclosure Day win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars
Will Disclosure Day win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?: Disclosure Day
KXOSCARSCORE-27-DIS
Cluster 3
Will The Drama win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars
Will The Drama win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?: The Drama
KXOSCARSCORE-27-DRA
Cluster 4
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?: Dune: Part Three
KXOSCARSCORE-27-DUN
Cluster 5
Will The Odyssey win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars
Will The Odyssey win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?: The Odyssey
KXOSCARSCORE-27-ODY
Cluster 6
Will Project Hail Mary win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars
Will Project Hail Mary win Best Music (Original Score) at the Oscars?: Project Hail Mary
KXOSCARSCORE-27-PRO
Analysis
This represents the estimated chance that The Odyssey will win the Academy Award for Best Original Score at the next Oscars ceremony. The 27% probability suggests the film is a mid-tier contender but faces significant competition from other nominated films. The score's critical reception and industry momentum heading into awards season will be primary drivers—strong reviews and guild awards (like from the Golden Globes or BAFTAs) could increase this probability, while poor reception would lower it. The key catalyst occurs when the full slate of nominees is announced, typically in late January, which will clarify The Odyssey's competitive position relative to other contenders. Until then, the estimate reflects general anticipation based on the film's production profile and composer reputation rather than concrete performance data.
- ›The Odyssey's composer identity and their historical Academy track record in the Original Score category
- ›Critical and audience reception of The Odyssey's score relative to competing films in the same release window
- ›Guild award results from precursor ceremonies (Golden Globes, BAFTA, ASCAP Awards) that typically correlate with Oscar outcomes
- ›The relative strength and recognition of other scores competing in the 2027 Oscars Best Original Score race
- ›Official nomination announcement date (typically late January 2027) which converts current speculation into confirmed competition data
What moved the line
- Aug 28The Black Ball↑9pp3→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 29The Odyssey↑7pp40→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 30The Odyssey↓7pp47→40¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1The Odyssey↑6pp42→48¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3The Odyssey↓6pp47→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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