Yes · KXTRUMPBULLCASECOMBO-27DEC
Yes is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
7¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If **ALL** of the following occur: 1. Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND 2. Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND 3. U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND 4. The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026 then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Yes
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$872
Identifier
KXTRUMPBULLCASECOMBO-27DEC-26
Jun 23, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$528
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$872
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If **ALL** of the following occur: 1. Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND 2. Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND 3. U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND 4. The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026 then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
KXTRUMPBULLCASECOMBO-27DEC-26
Event family
KXTRUMPBULLCASECOMBO-27DEC.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$872
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Yes 5¢
Current share
100%
Yes
kalshi · KXTRUMPBULLCASECOMBO-27DEC-26
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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