Will the Chicago Pro Football Team not relocate/announce a relocation by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?
Prediction markets currently give a 1% probability that Will the Chicago Pro Football Team not relocate/announce a relocation by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regu.... This contract trades at 1¢ on Kalshi, closing September 7, 2028. This market reflects extreme bearish sentiment on the Chicago Bears staying put, with the Yes contract trading at just 7¢ and implying only a 7% probability of no relocation by September 2028.
Analysis
This market reflects extreme bearish sentiment on the Chicago Bears staying put, with the Yes contract trading at just 7¢ and implying only a 7% probability of no relocation by September 2028. The massive 554.7% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either deep conviction among traders that relocation is imminent or severe mispricing, particularly given the team's long institutional history in Chicago and no public relocation announcements as of now. With $21,743 in open interest but only $57 in 24-hour volume and a tight 2¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to the open interest, creating potential execution challenges and raising questions about whether this extreme price reflects genuine market information or illiquidity-driven distortion.
Resolution rules
If the Chicago Pro Football Team stay and do not relocate/announce a relocation by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRELOCATIONCHI-28-REMAIN yes 100