Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to Indiana by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to Indiana by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing September 7, 2028. The 34¢ price reflects a low-probability relocation scenario, but the extremely high realized volatility of 377% and elevated info arrival rate of 1.1/hour suggest significant uncertainty and active debate around this outcome.
Analysis
The 34¢ price reflects a low-probability relocation scenario, but the extremely high realized volatility of 377% and elevated info arrival rate of 1.1/hour suggest significant uncertainty and active debate around this outcome. The asymmetric implied yields (97.4% for Yes vs. 17.9% for No) indicate Yes holders face substantially higher capital risk, which combined with the 4.03 vol ratio points to occasional sharp price spikes driven by news events rather than sustained conviction. With $43.5K open interest but only $301 in 24-hour volume, liquidity is thin relative to the position size, creating potential execution challenges for larger trades.
Resolution rules
If the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate or officially announce a relocation to Indiana by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRELOCATIONCHI-28-IND yes 100