Decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 above 20%
Decline greater than 20% is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
17¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If Statistics Canada reports that the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 is greater than 20% compared with 2025 in its "Travel between Canada and other countries, December 2026" release, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Decline greater than 20%
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXCANUSTRIPS-27FEB23-T20
Jul 12, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Feb 23, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Statistics Canada reports that the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 is greater than 20% compared with 2025 in its "Travel between Canada and other countries, December 2026" release, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 23, 2027
Identifier
KXCANUSTRIPS-27FEB23-T20
Event family
KXCANUSTRIPS-27FEB23.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Decline greater than 20% 16¢
Current share
—
Decline greater than 20%
kalshi · KXCANUSTRIPS-27FEB23-T20
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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