Democratic party hold more than 232 House seats in the 120th Congress
Above 232 is priced at 47¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 45¢ bid, 48¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 14 inside Will the Democratic party hold more than 2.
Price history
47¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the Democratic party has above 232 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 232
Rank
#8 of 14
Leader
Above 211 89¢
Range
5¢-89¢
Family volume
$100
Identifier
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A232
Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
45¢
Ask
48¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#8 of 14
14 outcomes · Will the Democratic party hold more than 2
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Family volume
$100
Orderbook snapshot
45 / 48¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic party has above 232 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
Identifier
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A232
Event family
Will the Democratic party hold more than 2.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$100
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Above 211 89¢
Current share
0%
Above 211
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A211
Above 214
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A214
Above 217
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A217
Above 220
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A220
Above 223
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A223
Above 226
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A226
Above 229
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A229
Above 232
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A232
Above 235
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A235
Above 238
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A238
Above 241
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A241
Above 244
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A244
Above 247
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A247
Above 250
kalshi · KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A250
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Read 47% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.