Will the Democratic party hold more than 250 House seats in the 120th Congress
Leader sits at 89% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 82%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 211
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
82¢
Above 214
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
181 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Democratic party hold more than 2
Will the Democratic party hold more than 211 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 211
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A211
Will the Democratic party hold more than 250 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 250
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A250
Will the Democratic party hold more than 247 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 247
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A247
Will the Democratic party hold more than 244 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 244
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A244
Will the Democratic party hold more than 241 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 241
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A241
Will the Democratic party hold more than 238 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 238
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A238
Will the Democratic party hold more than 235 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 235
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A235
Will the Democratic party hold more than 232 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 232
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A232
Will the Democratic party hold more than 229 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 229
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A229
Will the Democratic party hold more than 226 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 226
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A226
Will the Democratic party hold more than 223 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 223
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A223
Will the Democratic party hold more than 220 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 220
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A220
Will the Democratic party hold more than 217 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 217
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A217
Will the Democratic party hold more than 214 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 214
KXDHOUSESEATSDIR-27-A214
Analysis
This contract estimates an 89% chance that Democrats will hold at least 211 House seats in the 120th Congress (which begins January 2027), but only an 8% chance they'll exceed 250 seats. The probability reflects expectations about the 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats currently control 213 seats. The 89% figure suggests markets expect Democrats to maintain or gain a modest number of seats, while the sharp drop-off at 250 reflects skepticism about a significant expansion. Key drivers include historical midterm patterns (the party holding the presidency typically loses seats), current redistricting effects, and generic ballot polling. Resolution occurs after November 5, 2026 election results are certified and the new Congress is sworn in January 2027. Market confidence in the 211+ threshold versus uncertainty above 250 reflects uncertainty about both overall national trends and individual district competitiveness.
- ›Generic ballot polling showing Democratic vs Republican support as of mid-2026
- ›Historical midterm losses for the party holding the presidency (Democrats held 213 seats entering 2026)
- ›State-by-state redistricting outcomes and their effect on Democratic-leaning districts
- ›Candidate quality and fundraising disparities in competitive districts targeted by both parties
- ›Turnout and engagement levels in 2026 compared to recent election cycles
What moved the line
- Aug 1Above 235↓5pp39→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Above 238↓5pp32→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Above 241↓5pp25→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Above 244↓5pp19→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Above 229↓4pp52→48¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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