Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
5¢ current
Contract brief
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any TradingView 1 minute candle for the DFM Real Estate Index between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the DFM Real Estate Index "High" values available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=DFM%3ADFMREI, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the DFM Real Estate Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Outcome
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$8K
Identifier
0xf6d8ff2a...71e4
Aug 24, 2026, 10:03 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$8K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$8K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any TradingView 1 minute candle for the DFM Real Estate Index between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the DFM Real Estate Index "High" values available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=DFM%3ADFMREI, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the DFM Real Estate Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0xf6d8ff2a…71e4
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 18,000 in 2026 5¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
Read 5% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.