What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 37% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ 14,000
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
↓ 10,000
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$129
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
196 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↓ 10,000
0xbb3392…6621
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↓ 6,000
0x474dd2…3991
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↓ 8,000
0x35658b…117f
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↑ 18,000
0xf6d8ff…71e4
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↓ 4,000
0xcd56b4…3b89
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↑ 16,000
0xcc1388…6e00
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?: ↑ 14,000
0x0018a5…ec7d
Analysis
This 77% probability reflects market consensus that Dubai's Real Estate Index will close 2026 below 8,000 points. The index has faced headwinds from cooling demand after the 2022-2024 boom cycle, though Dubai's property market remains sensitive to regional geopolitical developments, interest rate changes, and foreign investor appetite. The outcome will depend on actual trading data through year-end December 2026, when the final index level determines whether this contract resolves in-the-money. Market participants are pricing in continued softening rather than a sharp recovery, though a sustained inflow of capital or significant interest rate cuts could shift this dynamic materially higher during the remaining months of 2026.
- ›Year-to-date 2026 index performance and trend direction as of mid-year will establish momentum for the remaining six months
- ›Regional geopolitical stability and changes to UAE monetary policy or Federal Reserve rates affect capital flows into Dubai real estate
- ›Foreign buyer activity levels and residential transaction volumes serve as leading indicators for index direction
- ›Comparison to the 8,000 threshold requires precise index calculation methodology and data from Dubai's official index provider on or before December 31, 2026
- ›Broader Gulf Cooperation Council economic conditions and competing investment destinations influence whether Dubai maintains or loses market share
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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