What is the current probability for "Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 653.5% and 31.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced sharp downward momentum, declining from 21¢ to 15¢ over seven days, suggesting traders are increasingly skeptical of exactly two Fed cuts occurring between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026.

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20¢

Bid/Ask 18/20¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $729.25·OI $163,000.45·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2

7-day price76 snapshots · 46 regime

21¢18¢ current

Apr 815¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market has experienced sharp downward momentum, declining from 21¢ to 15¢ over seven days, suggesting traders are increasingly skeptical of exactly two Fed cuts occurring between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026. The 798% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the extreme asymmetry of a 16¢ price with 259 days to expiry, though this is tempered by moderate liquidity ($363.98 in 24h volume) and a modest cliff risk index of 6. The tight 1¢ spread and $160k open interest indicate reasonable depth, but the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional conviction from the broader market.

Resolution rules

If the Fed cuts 2 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 653.5%

IY (No) 31.5%

Adj IY 327%

CRI 5

EE 10.000

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	653.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	31.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	327%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	10.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 6:52:03 PM

SF edge 11.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +11¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co

Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →