Will the Fed cut rates 4 times at emergency meetings
Will the Fed cut rates 4 times at emergency meetings is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
4¢ current
Contract brief
If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 4 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Fed cut rates 4 times at emergency meetings
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$16K
Identifier
KXEMERCUTS-26-T4
Jul 23, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$16K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$16K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 4 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXEMERCUTS-26-T4
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$16K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the Fed cut rates 4 times at emergency meetings 4¢
Current share
100%
Will the Fed cut rates 4 times at emergency meetings
kalshi · KXEMERCUTS-26-T4
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.