Before Jan 1, 2027 · Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?: Before J
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 94¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?: Before J.
Price history
94¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If a reconciliation bill passes the House before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 94¢
Range
1¢-94¢
Family volume
$149K
Identifier
KXRECNCH-26-JAN01
Jun 5, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
94¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$18
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?: Before J
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$149K
Orderbook snapshot
94 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a reconciliation bill passes the House before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXRECNCH-26-JAN01
Event family
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?: Before J.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$149K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 94¢
Current share
0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXRECNCH-26-JAN01
Before Jul 3, 2026
kalshi · KXRECNCH-26-JUL03
Before Jun 12, 2026
kalshi · KXRECNCH-26-JUN12
Before Jun 10, 2026
kalshi · KXRECNCH-26-JUN10
Before Jun 6, 2026
kalshi · KXRECNCH-26-JUN06
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 94% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.