Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Kalshi, closing July 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $857 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 62¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $857 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 62¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread. The dramatic 7-day rally from 18¢ to 78¢ suggests recent positive sentiment shift, though the asymmetric implied yields (133% for Yes vs. 1677% for No) indicate the market is pricing in significant tail risk. With 77 days to close and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, traders should be cautious about the thin liquidity and potential for sharp repricing if legislative developments emerge.
Resolution rules
If a reconciliation bill passes the House before July 03, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRECNCH-26-JUL03 yes 100