Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
10¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXGOVD-P3
Jun 24, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-TXGOVD-P3
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Texas be at least 3 percentage points 10¢
Current share
100%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.