Margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary above 20%
John Sununu, ≥20% is priced at 78¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 78¢ bid, 83¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above.
Price history
78¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
John Sununu, ≥20%
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
John Sununu, ≥5% 92¢
Range
27¢-92¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATENHR26-JSUN-P60
Aug 7, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 39m ago
Implied probability
Bid
78¢
Ask
83¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$187
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above
Closes
Sep 8, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
78 / 83¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 8, 2027
Identifier
KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATENHR26-JSUN-P60
Event family
Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
6
Highest price
John Sununu, ≥5% 92¢
Current share
—
John Sununu, ≥5%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATENHR26-JSUN-P52
John Sununu, ≥10%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATENHR26-JSUN-P55
John Sununu, ≥20%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATENHR26-JSUN-P60
John Sununu, ≥30%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATENHR26-JSUN-P65
John Sununu, ≥40%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATENHR26-JSUN-P70
John Sununu, ≥50%
kalshi · KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATENHR26-JSUN-P75
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.