Margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff above 12%
Larry Rhoden, ≥12% is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 10 inside Will the margin of victory.
Price history
20¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 12% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Larry Rhoden, ≥12%
Rank
#1 of 10
Leader
Larry Rhoden, ≥12% 19¢
Range
1¢-19¢
Family volume
$638
Identifier
KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-LRHO-P56
Jun 25, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$633
Family rank
#1 of 10
10 outcomes · Will the margin of victory
Closes
Jul 28, 2027
Family volume
$638
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff falls within 12% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 28, 2027
Identifier
KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-LRHO-P56
Event family
Will the margin of victory.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$638
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Larry Rhoden, ≥12% 19¢
Current share
99%
Larry Rhoden, ≥12%
kalshi · KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-LRHO-P56
Toby Doeden, ≥12%
kalshi · KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-TDOE-P56
Toby Doeden, 0-3%
kalshi · KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-TDOE-P1
Larry Rhoden, 0-3%
kalshi · KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-LRHO-P1
Toby Doeden, 3-6%
kalshi · KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-TDOE-P4
Larry Rhoden, 6-9%
kalshi · KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-LRHO-P7
Larry Rhoden, 3-6%
kalshi · KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-LRHO-P4
Toby Doeden, 9-12%
kalshi · KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-TDOE-P10
Toby Doeden, 6-9%
kalshi · KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-TDOE-P7
Larry Rhoden, 9-12%
kalshi · KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-LRHO-P10
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.