Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 6% and 9%
Leader sits at 19% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Larry Rhoden, ≥12%
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Toby Doeden, ≥12%
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$641
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 28, 2027
397 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be above 12%?: Larry Rhoden, ≥12%
KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-LRHO-P56
Will the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be above 12%?: Toby Doeden, ≥12%
KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-TDOE-P56
Will the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 3% and 6%?: Toby Doeden, 3-6%
KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-TDOE-P4
Will the margin of victory for Toby Doeden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Toby Doeden, 0-3%
KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-TDOE-P1
Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 6% and 9%?: Larry Rhoden, 6-9%
KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-LRHO-P7
Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Larry Rhoden, 0-3%
KXSDRGOVRUNOFFMOV-GOVSDNOMR26R-LRHO-P1
Analysis
This contract asks whether Larry Rhoden will win South Dakota's 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff by a margin between 6% and 9%. The 20% probability reflects markets pricing this outcome as unlikely relative to other margin scenarios. The current pricing structure suggests that traders see either a larger victory margin (≥12%) or a much closer race (0-3%) as more probable outcomes for Rhoden, with Toby Doeden's larger victory margins also receiving elevated pricing. The key uncertainty centers on whether Rhoden maintains his position or Doeden gains ground heading into the runoff vote. Polling data released closer to the election date will be the primary driver of probability shifts, as it would either confirm the expected margin range or signal movement toward the tighter or wider outcomes currently favored by markets.
- ›Larry Rhoden trades at 3¢ (3% implied) for the 6-9% margin band, the lowest-priced outcome among contracts, suggesting markets view this specific range as relatively unlikely
- ›Toby Doeden's ≥12% outcome prices at 20¢, tied with the headline probability and indicating substantial market conviction toward a decisive Doeden victory
- ›The 0-3% margin contracts for both candidates (10¢ for Doeden, 9¢ for Rhoden) suggest markets assign meaningful probability to a very tight race, competing with the larger-margin scenarios
- ›Recent polling or endorsement shifts would directly alter expectations about final margin ranges and reweight the probability distribution across all outcome buckets
- ›No recent 24-hour trading volume on several contracts indicates thin liquidity in this specific market, potentially reflecting limited trader interest or uncertainty about the runoff occurring
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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