Margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election between 3% and 6%
Mary Peltola, 3-6% is priced at 24¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 10 inside Will the margin of victory.
Price history
24¢ current
+19¢Contract brief
If the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Mary Peltola, 3-6%
Rank
#1 of 10
Leader
Mary Peltola, 3-6% 21¢
Range
1¢-21¢
Family volume
$2
Identifier
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P4
Sep 22, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
23¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$200
Family rank
#1 of 10
10 outcomes · Will the margin of victory
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Family volume
$2
Orderbook snapshot
23 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Identifier
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P4
Event family
Will the margin of victory.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Mary Peltola, 3-6% 21¢
Current share
0%
Mary Peltola, 3-6%
kalshi · KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P4
Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
kalshi · KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P1
Dan Sullivan, 9-12%
kalshi · KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P10
Mary Peltola, 0-3%
kalshi · KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P1
Dan Sullivan, 3-6%
kalshi · KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P4
Dan Sullivan, 6-9%
kalshi · KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P7
Mary Peltola, 6-9%
kalshi · KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P7
Mary Peltola, 9-12%
kalshi · KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P10
Mary Peltola, ≥12%
kalshi · KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P56
Dan Sullivan, ≥12%
kalshi · KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P56
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
none
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.