Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%
Leader sits at 21% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mary Peltola, 3-6%
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
253 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?: Mary Peltola, 0-3%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P1
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?: Dan Sullivan, 9-12%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P10
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%?: Dan Sullivan, 6-9%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P7
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?: Dan Sullivan, 3-6%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P4
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?: Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P1
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?: Mary Peltola, 3-6%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P4
Analysis
This outcome measures whether Republican Dan Sullivan will win Alaska's 2026 Senate seat by a margin between 3 and 6 percentage points. Markets currently assign this scenario just 21% probability, suggesting traders view either larger Sullivan victories or Peltola wins as more likely outcomes. The contract's low price reflects uncertainty about Alaska's competitive dynamics: Sullivan's current market position shows strongest pricing in the 0-3% margin band (18¢), indicating markets see a close race or slight Peltola advantage. The main driver of this specific outcome would be the final election result on November 4, 2026. Factors shaping these probabilities include Alaska's recent electoral history, voter registration trends, and the specific dynamics of Democratic candidate Peltola versus Republican Sullivan.
- ›Sullivan's 0-3% margin contract (18¢) prices higher than his 3-6% contract (10¢), suggesting markets weight narrower victories or losses over this outcome
- ›Peltola's 0-3% margin contract (13¢) is the market's single strongest contract, indicating competitive race expectations
- ›Alaska has trended Republican in statewide elections since 2020, but Peltola's 2022 House victory demonstrates Democratic viability in the state
- ›The 3-6% margin band represents moderate victory—larger than a toss-up but not a commanding win, which markets currently view as lower probability than extreme outcomes
- ›No scheduled debates or major polling releases before November 4, 2026 are factored into current contract pricing
What moved the line
- Sep 17Mary Peltola, 3-6%↑11pp10→21¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Mary Peltola, 0-3%↓4pp19→15¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Dan Sullivan, 0-3%↑3pp15→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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