Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%
Leader sits at 20% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mary Peltola, 0-3%
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$105
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
341 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?: Mary Peltola, 3-6%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P4
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?: Mary Peltola, 9-12%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P10
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%?: Mary Peltola, 6-9%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P7
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?: Mary Peltola, 0-3%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-MPEL-P1
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%?: Dan Sullivan, 6-9%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P7
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?: Dan Sullivan, 3-6%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P4
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?: Dan Sullivan, 9-12%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P10
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?: Dan Sullivan, 0-3%
KXAKMOV-AKSENATE26NOV03-DSUL-P1
Analysis
This contract predicts a 15% chance that Republican Dan Sullivan wins Alaska's 2026 Senate race by a margin between 3% and 6%. Markets currently price a closer outcome as more likely, with Sullivan's 0-3% margin victory at 13% probability. The underlying race appears competitive, with contract pricing suggesting uncertainty about both the winner and final margin. Key drivers include Alaska's recent voting patterns, early polling as the campaign develops, turnout dynamics in a state with historical volatility, and how effectively candidates mobilize their bases. The 2026 general election on November 3rd will ultimately resolve this outcome, though intervening primary results and campaign developments will reshape probabilities throughout the cycle.
- ›Dan Sullivan's 0-3% margin is priced slightly higher (13¢) than his 3-6% margin (12¢), suggesting markets expect either a decisive Sullivan win or a Peltola victory rather than a narrow Sullivan win
- ›Mary Peltola's 0-3% margin matches the current headline at 15%, indicating symmetric uncertainty—markets see close outcomes as most probable across multiple candidates
- ›The 3-6% margin contract shows minimal 24-hour volume ($0) compared to comparable outcomes, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially less refined price discovery in this specific band
- ›Alaska's recent electoral history includes both large swings (2022 ranked-choice results) and demonstrated ticket-splitting, making margin prediction volatile relative to winner prediction
- ›Markets assign only 5¢ probability to Sullivan winning by more than 12%, suggesting forecasters expect the race to tighten from any current state rather than diverge significantly
What moved the line
- Jun 24Mary Peltola, 0-3%↓5pp25→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.