Margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Kansas at least 8 percentage points
Masterson, 8+ pts is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 30¢ bid, 37¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Kansas be at least.
Price history
34¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Kansas by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Masterson, 8+ pts
Rank
#3 of 7
Leader
Masterson, 2+ pts 56¢
Range
2¢-56¢
Family volume
$202
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-KSGOVR-P8
Sep 23, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
30¢
Ask
37¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$100
Family rank
#3 of 7
7 outcomes · Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Kansas be at least
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$202
Orderbook snapshot
30 / 37¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Kansas by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-KSGOVR-P8
Event family
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the governor election in Kansas be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$202
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Masterson, 2+ pts 56¢
Current share
50%
Masterson, 2+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-KSGOVR-P2
Masterson, 5+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-KSGOVR-P5
Masterson, 8+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-KSGOVR-P8
Masterson, 11+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-KSGOVR-P11
Masterson, 14+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-KSGOVR-P14
Masterson, 17+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-KSGOVR-P17
Masterson, 20+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-KSGOVR-P20
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.