Margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California at least 5 percentage points
Xavier Becerra, 5+ pts is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 11¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least.
Price history
1¢ current
−29¢Contract brief
If Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Xavier Becerra, 5+ pts
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Xavier Becerra, 1+ pts 98¢
Range
1¢-98¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPXBECE-P5
Jun 25, 2026, 7:22 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
11¢
Reported volume
$14K
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Xavier Becerra wins the 2026 gubernatorial primary election in California by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-CAGOVPXBECE-P5
Event family
Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Xavier Becerra, 1+ pts 98¢
Current share
—
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.