SimpleFunctions

79.01 or above · Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $

79.01 or above is priced at 50¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 48¢ ask, 43¢ spread. This outcome ranks #14 of 16 inside Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $.

Price history

50¢ current

+34¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Jul 6, 2026Jul 12, 2026

Contract brief

If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $79 between Issuance and Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

79.01 or above

Rank

#14 of 16

Leader

74.01 or above 82¢

Range

3¢-82¢

Family volume

$9K

Identifier

KXWTIMAX-26JUL31-T79

Jul 12, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 28m ago

Implied probability

50¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 12, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 28m ago

Bid

Ask

48¢

Spread

43¢

24h volume

$424

Family rank

#14 of 16

16 outcomes · Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $

Closes

Jul 31, 2026

Family volume

$9K

Orderbook snapshot

5 / 48¢

Kalshi
43¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.0K
5¢30
4¢258
AskSize
48¢183
49¢222
56¢1
58¢15
68¢40

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $79 between Issuance and Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 31, 2026

Identifier

KXWTIMAX-26JUL31-T79

SF Signal
SF Index
36352.68
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

36352.7%

IY (No)

100.7%

Adj IY

36353%

CRI

19

RV

13480%

VR

6.72

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

36352.7%
100.7%
Adj IY
36353%
19
RV
13480%
VR
6.72
IAR
0.7/h
Overround
3.7%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.