Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30 is priced at 35¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 35¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
35¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)
Outcome
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$15K
Identifier
0x8acdad18...be68
Aug 24, 2026, 8:07 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$270
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
Family volume
$15K
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 36¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
Identifier
0x8acdad18…be68
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$15K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30 35¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.