Min temperature in San Francisco below 50 degrees on Jul 4, 2026
San Francisco is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Will the min temperature.
Price history
10¢ current
−39¢Contract brief
If the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 4, 2026, is less than 50°F according to the Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
San Francisco
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Seattle 25¢
Range
1¢-25¢
Family volume
$19K
Identifier
KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-SFO
Jun 27, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Will the min temperature
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
Family volume
$19K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 4, 2026, is less than 50°F according to the Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
Identifier
KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-SFO
Event family
Will the min temperature.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$19K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Seattle 25¢
Current share
16%
Seattle
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-SEA
Denver
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-DEN
San Francisco
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-SFO
Austin
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-AUS
Houston
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-HOU
New York City
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-NYC
Boston
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-BOS
Miami
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-MIA
Oklahoma City
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-OKC
Washington DC
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-DC
Chicago
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-CHI
Minneapolis
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-MIN
Philadelphia
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-PHIL
Atlanta
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-ATL
Dallas
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-DAL
Los Angeles
kalshi · KXHOLIDAYTMIN-26070450-LAX
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.