Will the min temperature in Seattle be below 50 degrees on Jul 4, 2026
Leader sits at 28% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Seattle
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
San Francisco
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
8 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the min temperature in S
Analysis
This contract estimates an 8% chance that Seattle's minimum temperature will fall below 50 degrees Fahrenheit on July 4, 2026. Early July is typically warm in the Pacific Northwest, making sub-50 degree overnight lows uncommon for that date, which explains the low probability. The main drivers are seasonal weather patterns and any anomalous cold fronts that might move through the region in early July. The resolution occurs on July 4, 2026, when the actual minimum temperature will be recorded and verified against National Weather Service data. Comparable contracts for other major U.S. cities show similarly low probabilities (3-10%), suggesting market participants view a sub-50 degree minimum as unlikely across most population centers during early summer.
- ›Historical Seattle July temperatures show minimum readings typically between 50-55°F, making sub-50 outcomes rare but not unprecedented
- ›Current probability of 8% is notably higher than Dallas, NYC, Denver, and DC (3-5%), suggesting Seattle's marine climate creates marginally greater cool-night risk
- ›The specific threshold of 50°F is a meaningful weather boundary; accuracy depends on precise overnight low readings from official weather stations
- ›Resolution depends on verified National Weather Service data recorded on July 4, 2026, eliminating ambiguity once the date arrives
- ›Market pricing reflects typical climatology; significant movement would require credible weather forecasts indicating an unusual cold event 9+ days in advance
What moved the line
- Jun 25San Francisco↓3pp17→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26San Francisco↓3pp14→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (28% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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