10 · Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 1
10 is priced at 93¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 93¢ bid, 96¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 1.
Price history
93¢ current
+77¢Contract brief
If the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) is exactly 10 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
10
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
10 94¢
Range
1¢-94¢
Family volume
$25K
Identifier
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26AUG01-E10
Jul 28, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
93¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$19K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 1
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$25K
Orderbook snapshot
93 / 96¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) is exactly 10 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26AUG01-E10
Event family
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$25K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
10 94¢
Current share
77%
10
kalshi · KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26AUG01-E10
11
kalshi · KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26AUG01-E11
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.