4
Leader sits at 96% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 6
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
At least 7
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
42 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 7 in Sep 2026?: At least 7
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26SEP-AL7
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 8 in Sep 2026?: At least 8
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26SEP-AL8
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 9 in Sep 2026?: At least 9
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26SEP-AL9
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 8 in Oct 2026?: At least 8
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26SEP15-AL8
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 6 in Oct 2026?: At least 6
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26SEP15-AL6
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 20 in Oct 2026?: At least 20
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26SEP15-AL20
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 18 in Oct 2026?: At least 18
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26SEP15-AL18
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 16 in Oct 2026?: At least 16
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26SEP15-AL16
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 14 in Oct 2026?: At least 14
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26SEP15-AL14
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 12 in Oct 2026?: At least 12
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26SEP15-AL12
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 10 in Oct 2026?: At least 10
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26SEP15-AL10
Analysis
This market predicts whether Donald Trump will have visited exactly 6 distinct US states during June 2026. Markets currently assign this outcome a 44% probability, with visiting exactly 7 states at 22% and exactly 5 states at 16%. The outcome depends on Trump's travel schedule and activities during the month, which typically involves campaign events, political meetings, or other public appearances. The distribution across outcomes (5, 6, 7, 8 states) suggests uncertainty about his travel intensity. Resolution relies on applying consistent VISITAREA rules to documented visits. The market will resolve when June ends and visit records are finalized. Travel patterns of political figures are difficult to predict with precision, as schedules can change based on campaign needs, legal proceedings, or unforeseen events. The concentration of probability mass around 6 states (44%) indicates that moderate travel activity is viewed as most likely.
- ›Trump's publicly announced campaign schedule for June 2026 and any confirmed multi-state tours
- ›Historical baseline: average number of distinct states Trump visited in comparable recent months
- ›Whether the VISITAREA rules count brief stops, official events only, or residency—clarifying the definition boundary
- ›Potential schedule disruptions from legal, medical, or emergency circumstances that could reduce or increase travel
- ›Market volume and trading activity remains at $0 over 24 hours, indicating minimal liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery
What moved the line
- Sep 17At least 8↑29pp6→35¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18At least 8↓26pp35→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17At least 9↑17pp12→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18At least 9↓17pp29→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19At least 8↑6pp9→15¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 1d
- Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026last 83% · 2d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 6d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 6d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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