4
Leader sits at 58% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
10
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
9
Spread
37pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
9 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 9 in Jul 2026?: 9
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26AUG01-E9
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 10 in Jul 2026?: 10
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26AUG01-E10
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 11 in Jul 2026?: 11
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26AUG01-E11
Analysis
This market predicts whether Donald Trump will have visited exactly 6 distinct US states during June 2026. Markets currently assign this outcome a 44% probability, with visiting exactly 7 states at 22% and exactly 5 states at 16%. The outcome depends on Trump's travel schedule and activities during the month, which typically involves campaign events, political meetings, or other public appearances. The distribution across outcomes (5, 6, 7, 8 states) suggests uncertainty about his travel intensity. Resolution relies on applying consistent VISITAREA rules to documented visits. The market will resolve when June ends and visit records are finalized. Travel patterns of political figures are difficult to predict with precision, as schedules can change based on campaign needs, legal proceedings, or unforeseen events. The concentration of probability mass around 6 states (44%) indicates that moderate travel activity is viewed as most likely.
- ›Trump's publicly announced campaign schedule for June 2026 and any confirmed multi-state tours
- ›Historical baseline: average number of distinct states Trump visited in comparable recent months
- ›Whether the VISITAREA rules count brief stops, official events only, or residency—clarifying the definition boundary
- ›Potential schedule disruptions from legal, medical, or emergency circumstances that could reduce or increase travel
- ›Market volume and trading activity remains at $0 over 24 hours, indicating minimal liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery
What moved the line
- Jul 2210↑31pp20→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 229↓28pp58→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 209↑24pp28→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2110↑15pp5→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 199↑9pp19→28¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026last 73% · 2d
- Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 4d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 6d
- Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before May 15, 2026last 3% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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