4
Leader sits at 17% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 15%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
6
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
15¢
5
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules)
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 8 in May 2026?: 8
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T8
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 7 in May 2026?: 7
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T7
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 5 in May 2026?: 5
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T5
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 6 in May 2026?: 6
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T6
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 3 in May 2026?: 3
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T3
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 4 in May 2026?: 4
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T4
Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be at least 9 in May 2026?: At least 9
KXTRUMPNUMSTATES-26JUN01-T9
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.