4 · Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties
4 is priced at 19¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties.
Price history
19¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
4
Rank
#3 of 7
Leader
3 20¢
Range
1¢-20¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E4
Jul 12, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#3 of 7
7 outcomes · Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E4
Event family
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
3 20¢
Current share
—
3
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E3
5
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E5
4
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E4
2
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E2
Above 5
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-A5
0
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E0
1
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E1
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.