Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be above 5 2026 midterms
Leader sits at 95% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 1
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
At least 2
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$34
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
114 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 8 2026 midterms?: At least 8
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL8
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 7 2026 midterms?: At least 7
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL7
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 6 2026 midterms?: At least 6
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL6
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 5 2026 midterms?: At least 5
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL5
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 4 2026 midterms?: At least 4
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL4
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?: At least 3
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL3
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 2 2026 midterms?: At least 2
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL2
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?: At least 1
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL1
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be exactly 5 2026 midterms?: 5
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E5
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be exactly 4 2026 midterms?: 4
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E4
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be exactly 3 2026 midterms?: 3
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E3
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be exactly 2 2026 midterms?: 2
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-E2
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be above 5 2026 midterms?: Above 5
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB01-A5
Analysis
This contract measures whether more than five U.S. states will have split outcomes in 2026—where the gubernatorial winner and Senate winner belong to different political parties. Currently priced at 21%, suggesting markets expect this to be relatively uncommon, with outcomes of exactly 3 or 4 states appearing most likely. The baseline likelihood depends on how many competitive races occur in each category and the strength of ticket-splitting behavior in those states. Historically, split outcomes reflect local political dynamics that diverge from national trends. The resolution hinges on final election results in November 2026, where both gubernatorial and Senate races will be determined simultaneously across multiple states. Party performance variations, candidate quality, and voter preferences in specific races will determine whether split outcomes exceed five states.
- ›Number of states holding concurrent gubernatorial and Senate elections in 2026 and how many are genuinely competitive in both races
- ›Historical rate of ticket-splitting in overlapping gubernatorial-Senate races, typically ranging from 10-25% of contested states
- ›Partisan lean divergence between Senate-eligible voters and gubernatorial-eligible voters in swing states
- ›Quality and incumbent status of specific 2026 gubernatorial and Senate candidates in states with both races
- ›Whether national political environment favors unified ticket voting or encourages split outcomes based on local factors
What moved the line
- Jul 65↑19pp1→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 3% · 1d
- Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 97% · 1d
- Who will advance in the 2026 CA-48 primarylast 8% · 1d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026last 96% · 1d
- Will Scott Bottoms be the Republican nominee for Governor in Coloradolast 97% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms: Democrats Heavy House Favorites, Senate Toss-Up
Midterm control markets are active: Democrats at 81¢ to win House, Senate toss-up at 43¢. Key primaries (Michigan, Maine) and general election match-ups are driving volume. 2028 presidential nominee markets show no clear frontrunner—Newsom, Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez all below 20¢—while J.D. Vance leads Republican field at 41¢.
Democrats Heavy House Favorites as Senate Battle Tightens
2026 midterm election markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House at 82¢, while the Senate race is a toss-up with Republicans at 55¢. Key swing states: Michigan Senate leans Democratic (69¢), Maine Senate leans Democratic (63¢), and Texas Senate leans Republican (57¢). The Florida gubernatorial primary is a done deal for Byron Donalds at 96¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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