Number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties at least 3 2026 midterms
At least 3 is priced at 45¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 81¢ bid, 87¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 8 inside Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least.
Price history
45¢ current
Contract brief
If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties is at least 3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 3
Rank
#3 of 8
Leader
At least 1 95¢
Range
5¢-95¢
Family volume
$34
Identifier
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL3
Jul 12, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
81¢
Ask
87¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#3 of 8
8 outcomes · Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$34
Orderbook snapshot
81 / 87¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties is at least 3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL3
Event family
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$34
Outcomes
8
Highest price
At least 1 95¢
Current share
0%
At least 1
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL1
At least 2
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL2
At least 3
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL3
At least 4
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL4
At least 5
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL5
At least 6
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL6
At least 7
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL7
At least 8
kalshi · KXGOVSENDIFF-27FEB012-AL8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
Read 45% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.