Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kendrick Jarrell Beaird in Beaird v. United States: Before Aug 1, 2028 · KXSCOTUSCASE-BEAUSA28
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kendrick Jarrell Beaird in Beaird v. United States: Before Aug 1, 2028 is priced at 55¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 51¢ bid, 59¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
55¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If the Supreme Court, in Beaird v. United States, rules courts must independently interpret the Sentencing Guidelines or apply a narrower deference framework than Stinson when considering Guidelines commentary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kendrick Jarrell Beaird in Beaird v. United States: Before Aug 1, 2028
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$200
Identifier
KXSCOTUSCASE-BEAUSA28
Jul 24, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
51¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$200
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 1, 2028
Family volume
$200
Orderbook snapshot
51 / 59¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Supreme Court, in Beaird v. United States, rules courts must independently interpret the Sentencing Guidelines or apply a narrower deference framework than Stinson when considering Guidelines commentary, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2028
Identifier
KXSCOTUSCASE-BEAUSA28
Event family
KXSCOTUSCASE-BEAUSA28.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$200
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kendrick Jarrell Beaird in Beaird v. United States: Before Aug 1, 2028 51¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.