SimpleFunctions

Total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary above 110000

Above 110k is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 29¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above.

Price history

30¢ current

+29¢
0¢25¢
May 28, 2026Jun 24, 2026

Contract brief

If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary is above 110000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 110k

Rank

#4 of 5

Leader

Above 80k 95¢

Range

10¢-95¢

Family volume

$8K

Identifier

KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY12D26-110000

Jun 24, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 13m ago

Implied probability

30¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 24, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 13m ago

Bid

23¢

Ask

29¢

Spread

24h volume

$1K

Family rank

#4 of 5

5 outcomes · Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above

Closes

Jun 23, 2027

Family volume

$8K

Orderbook snapshot

23 / 29¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
23¢200
22¢100
21¢100
20¢200
AskSize
29¢100
30¢200
46¢1
87¢6
95¢40

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary is above 110000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 23, 2027

Identifier

KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY12D26-110000

SF Signal
SF Index
335.19
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$8K

Outcomes

5

Highest price

Above 80k 95¢

Current share

14%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

335.2%

IY (No)

29.9%

Adj IY

335%

CRI

3

RV

4060%

VR

7.94

Regime

neutral

Score

0.477

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

335.2%
29.9%
Adj IY
335%
3
RV
4060%
VR
7.94
IAR
0.8/h
Overround
1.9%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.