Index change · Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce
Index change is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce.
Price history
15¢ current
Contract brief
If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces the adoption of an inflation index other than CPI for the Renewables Obligation buy-out price before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Index change
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
ROC recycle removal 40¢
Range
10¢-40¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXUKRENEWOB-28JAN01-INDX
Jul 22, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces the adoption of an inflation index other than CPI for the Renewables Obligation buy-out price before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KXUKRENEWOB-28JAN01-INDX
Event family
Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
3
Highest price
ROC recycle removal 40¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.